Take-home sales at the grocers increased by 2.2% in the four weeks to 1st November 2026 compared with a year ago, according to our latest data. Like-for-like grocery price inflation remains relatively subdued but rose slightly to 2.6%, up from 2.5% in the previous four weeks.
Grocery price inflation continued to increase after slowing over the summer. While prices are rising at a slower rate than at the beginning of the year, the direction of travel has changed. Household budgets have already taken a hit after the latest increase to the energy price cap arrived with the cold weather in October, and shoppers will be keeping a close eye on prices at the tills this winter.
Shoppers heed government’s ‘Be Ready’ advice
Sales of essential supplies jumped in the ten days from 22nd October after the launch of the government’s ‘Be Ready’ public awareness campaign, which encourages households to prepare for up to three days in the event of disruption to essential services.
In the ten days after the campaign was launched, sales of hand sanitiser increased by 83% compared to the corresponding period last year, with sales of bottled water (+67%) and tinned and jarred goods (+37%) also rising. The number of people buying tinned meat each day after the launch of the campaign rose by 43%, equivalent to an extra 400,000 shoppers a day, yet the typical amount bought remained at around 500g in terms of pack size.
Shoppers clearly took notice of the ‘Be Ready’ campaign, but this wasn’t panic buying, with less than a third of households buying bottled water in October. Growth came from more people adding the recommended items on the government’s checklist to their weekly shop, not from shoppers piling their trolleys high, which is very much in line with what the government wanted households to do.
Price of a pumpkin drops as shoppers get into the Halloween spirit
Over the month of October, 3.3 million households purchased a pumpkin, with the number sold up 10% year on year. The average price paid for a pumpkin stood at £1.20, 12% lower than last year, providing some small but welcome relief for shoppers looking to celebrate Halloween.
Tubs of sugar confectionery were the standout ‘trick or treat’ performer, with sales up by 28% compared to last year.
Retailers enter ‘golden quarter’ with Black Friday on the horizon
Retailers are now firmly in the so-called ‘golden quarter’, the peak spending period comprising major commercial events including Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas.
Despite pressure on household budgets, Black Friday week remains one of the biggest moments in the shopping calendar, and shoppers spent £4.4 billion across general merchandise categories last year, up 1% on the previous year and nearly double total spend in an average week.*
Many households will be planning their Christmas spending more carefully this year, making Black Friday an important moment for shoppers looking to make their money go further on big-ticket items, while retailers will be hoping it gets the golden quarter off to a strong start.
Ocado delivers joint record market share
Sales at online-only grocer Ocado grew by 12.3% over the 12 weeks to 1st November 2026 versus the same time a year ago. This represents the 30th consecutive period of double-digit growth, and the online-only specialist achieved a joint record market share of 2.3%, up from 2.1% in 2025. M&S, part owner of the Ocado retail business, separately increased grocery sales through its stores in the same time period by 14.6%.**
Spending through the tills at Lidl increased by 6.6%, resulting in a market share gain of 0.4 percentage points, the greatest of any retailer, and it now accounts for 8.6% of all sales. The third retailer to increase share compared with last year was Waitrose, moving up to 4.5% from 4.4% as sales rose by 2.2%.
Sales at Morrisons rose by 2.0%, slightly ahead of the market, delivering a stable market share of 8.3%. Tesco, Britain’s largest grocer, now commands a 27.8% share, with sales 1.2% higher over the latest 12 weeks. Meanwhile, sales at Sainsbury’s increased by 0.8% to give a share of 15.5% - the highest since April.
New Asda CEO David Potts starts his role with a market share of 11.3%, as more than half of households shopped in its stores or online over the last three months.
Sales were up by 0.4% at Aldi, Britain’s fourth largest grocer, taking share to 10.4%. Co-op’s sales were 0.7% higher than a year ago, meaning the convenience specialist now accounts for 5.3% of the market, while Iceland takes a 2.2% share.
*Worldpanel Plus w/e 30 November 2025. Categories included: appliances , consumer electronics , toys , beauty , fashion, pet , toiletries , gifts , homeware & arts & crafts & entertainment. All retail outlets including online.
**请注意：由于M&S的销售结构中服装和日用百货所占比例较高，根据消费者指数 市场份额报告所依据的“收银机小票”方法论，M&S并不符合“食品杂货商”的定义。 因此，本报告未提供 M&S 的可比市场份额数据。本更新中引用的 M&S 增长数据仅针对快速消费品（FMCG）销售额，而“食品杂货市场份额”表格中的食品杂货商数据则涵盖了通过超市收银台产生的总消费额。
弗雷泽·麦凯维特
消费者指数 零售与消费者洞察负责人，由纽锐拓
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